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RB boss Peter Bayer has confessed that while Lawson is a consideration for the second Red Bull operation, there are no certainties that he’ll be promoted.
The New Zealander currently works as reserve driver for both RB and Red Bull Racing, having enjoyed a five-race cameo in place of Daniel Ricciardo last season.
During that stint, Lawson proved himself a capable driver at F1 level, though he missed out on a race drive this year as AlphaTauri (as RB was then known) opted to retain Ricciardo and Yuki Tsunoda.
The fate of those two again is critical to his own.
“It’s very early days,” Bayer told Speedcafe of Lawson’s chances of landing a drive with RB in 2025.
“It depends a bit on how the global market is developing.
“If there is change in our team, there’s a big likely vote for Liam to be the one.”
If Red Bull cannot offer him a race drive for 2025, the 22-year-old is free to pursue opportunities externally.
Helmut Marko, the company’s motorsport advisor, has stated his desire to have Lawson on the grid this year.
But where an opportunity may arise within the Red Bull camp for 2025 is unclear.
Max Verstappen is contractually locked away until 2028 despite whispers that he is tempted to leave the team.
Team-mate Sergio Perez does not have the same security. The Mexican is one of a small number of drivers linked with the second Red Bull Racing seat.
Carlos Sainz is also in that mix, as are, hypothetically at least, both Tsunoda and Ricciardo, should they perform to the necessary level.
A deal with Sainz would likely see the Spaniard replace Perez with no change at RB, meaning there’d be no room for Lawson.
Therefore, his chances appear inexorably linked to either Ricciardo or Tsunoda’s promotion to the senior team, with Ricciardo considered the most likely despite his team-mate’s recent form.
Tsunoda has seldom been seriously linked with a move to Milton Keynes throughout his career, with many predicting he’ll head to Aston Martin once Honda switches its allegiance for 2026.
“Honestly, it’s too early,” Bayer insisted on discussing the possible promotion of Lawson.
“You don’t know how things are going at Red Bull.
“And when was it, when Fernando changed to Aston Martin? [It was] Like a game of chess, which was like simultaneous chess.
“Potentially could happen this year, I guess. But he’s out reserve driver, we clearly said that he is out number one candidate for a seat, if there is a seat.”
